Friday, April 2, 2010

All Eyes on the US Dollar.

With the rumors/news/accusations of our trusted bankers fiddling with the gold market, the Fed abusing power and various forms of corporate anarchy barraging the markets, it is difficult to believe that the USD wont have an spirited spring-early summer.

On Dec 06, 2009 the case for the US Dollar Index making a significant secondary low was presented. This market has now entered an important time and price harmonic from the Nov. 27 - Dec 02 Low @ 74.23.
The three year chart shows two cycles ending in mid to late April. The USD has retraced 50% of the Mar 09--Dec 09 @ 81.93. (recent high = 82.24)
click chart for an enlarged view.

The chart below shows the rally from late November-early December 2009 from 74.23. There is now a distinct 5 wave structure being formed coincident with two important short term time harmonics--March 24-27. The are two price extensions (1.618 & 1.236) that are approximate to the 50% retracement of the last bear campaign. (2009)

Important levels to monitor are:
  • 82.24: Recent high
  • 81.93: 50% retracement from the Mar-Nov 2009 Bear.
  • 82.44-82.46: Harmonic price level formed from current advance structure.
  • 79.51: Low of CD
  • 79.02-79.27: 89 and 200 day exponential moving averages.
  • April 19-22nd: Time harmonic based on current structure.
click chart for an enlarged view.

The near term direction of the U.S. Dollar will likely be an antecedent event that will effect the behavior of several markets. Caveat Emptor.

1 comment:

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