Thursday, May 6, 2010

Energy Date !!!!!!!!!!!

GO FIGURE: Today's Range on the S&P was 1167.58-1065.79 = 101.79
61.8 pct. of the range = 62.90
61.8 pct of the range @ 1128.69
Today's settlement price = 1128.15
Monthly Energy Dates are listed on the left side panel of the blog. As can be seen the May 5-7th is the first of four projected Energy Dates (ED) for the month of May. Today's action certainly satisfies the conditions one would expect of an energy date. During ED periods, markets can be expected to make lows, highs or have accelerations either up or down. Today was no exception.

  • 200 day exponential moving average and the 2.618natural support line (NSL) (1090-1100), are just above the spike low seen during the Proctor Gamble fiasco this afternoon.
  • Prices closed in the upper half of today's range--@ almost exact 61.8pct of the range.
  • Energy Date--a possible short term market low could have been established as this is the middle of the May 5-7 ED.
  • markets are not yet 'technically oversold'--see RSI and MACD etc.
  • The 61.8 pct. and 50 pct. retracement levels of the Feb 5 - April 26 bull campaign (878.04 and 943.30 respectively) are approximately equal to the pivot points marked 1 and 2. This area should provide significant support in the event that the market declines further in the short term.
  • The interaction of the 21-55 & 200 day exponential moving averages will be important to monitor as this may reveal the wave structure of the current decline.

The weekly chart indicates that the markets were in a technically over bought configuration as demonstrated by the RSI and MACD. It is interesting to note that today's settlement is approximately at the 50 pct. retracement level (1121.44)of the 2007-2009 bear campaign. Note that thie latest rally peaked at 61.8 pct of the 2007-2009 bear market.


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