Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Wave 'c' or 'iii' Commencing.

The market appears to have tested the 50% retracement from the June 8 - June 21 advance--stopping just below the 1086.70 (50% and the first support of the DAILY PIVOT. (1086.83)

Time to watch the rally for clues as to the markets intentions. A move above 1170 would be interpreted as bullish and leaning towards a five count impulse wave.


Anonymous said...

How is this count fitting in view of expected negative energy coming from skies. Either this count is wrong or your Astro analysis is wrong (or worse both are wrong!).
There is a old saying bulls make money, bears makes money, rest lose. Which category this blog fits in? One day I read bearish view another day bullish view.

Fibocycle said...

You are correct--wave counts could--in retrospect-- be totally wrong. I prefer to look at the price time ratios rather than tie myself to a subjective determination such as a wave count. This is how confirmation bias enters the picture.
I am bearish have been since the April 27th (
I will constantly entertain the opposite market view so that if the trend changes I will be aware of it before too much damage is done. (i.e. too many chips are left on the table) Getting emotionally attached to a market perspective never has a happy ending.
My objective is to determine pivotal dates and levels that will assist in the determination of probable outcomes. To give explicit advice is not the intention of my squiggly lines.
It is all about the harmonics not the wave count.

Everyone executes trades differently--as they should.

Fibocycle said...

My bearish perspective is revealed by the constant referral to the Apr-June decline as a five wave structure which necessitates another similar 5 wave structure after the current corrective stage. The alternate count presents the bullish contra-argument that should be incorporated in stop loss, entry and reentry strategies etc..

Anonymous said...

Thanks for taking time to clarify.
I appreciate your deep knowledge of markets.

I am trading markets for twenty years, however, never felt smart enough to understand next move of Mr.Market. My experience taught me that never trade against main-trend of market, even for a short-term.

I hope going forward you focus more on scary things that are happening in the sky as yesterday there was an earthquake in Quebec (Canada) which was felt in several states in USA like Michigan, Ohio, PA etc. This got to be scary to anyone that is following movements in the sky.

Fibocycle said...

I mention the 200 day moving average frequently because this one line will do a lot to reveal the main trend. Its interaction with the 21 and 55 day averages (exponential) are quite good at identifying wave patterns as well as predominant trends--short, intermediate and long term..
I live about 45 kilometers from the epicenter of the quake you mentioned--the first thing that went through my head after the initial chaos was that it was an omen of the eclipse setting of a series of events that will correspond with the T-Square alignment this summer. Things are about to elevate to the next level of intensity--I wouldn't want to work at the Fed.