Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Yet another alternative.

Using the the conventional (popular) Elliott count of the recent rally, a case can be made for a corrective A-B-C formation to terminate at the 1150 area.
  • current rally would end at 1130 (a)
  • decline to support at 1105-1107 (b)
  • advance to 1150 (c) (50% of a) or 1160 (61.8% of a)
  • This would be a 2 wave high followed by a wave 3 decline--breaking the May 25th low and possibly headed to 890.
The alternative bullish structure would delineate the April 26- June 8 decline as an ABC in an ongoing bull market. If, after a peak at 1130 and a decline to the 1107 area (i & ii), the bullish alternative could have a massive iii wave that would take the market to the 1190 or 1248.

In all scenarios, 1150 is the 'sweet spot'

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

If I may comment, alternatively 1, 2, i, ii for posted i, ii, iii, a accordingly. In this case a retraced approximately 61.8 of ii. Tomorrow iii starting to clean the house of rats and pigs. Best wishes.

Anonymous said...

What happened your thoughts about "Trouble in paradise?" Your alternate possible bullish count does suggest that there are no more problems in paradise and all is clear for one to commit suicide by jumping on the long side with a hope to reach eternal bull market peaks!!

Fibocycle said...

I believe any semblance of paradise in the near future was likely eliminated by today's market reversal. The recent advance has some text book signs of a corrective wave and the reversal on ostensibly great macro news once again supported the adage: Buy on rumor--sell on news.
All markets are beginning to 'vibrate intensely'--the summer should be interesting.