Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Copper: As Does Copper So Does Equities.

Some say that Copper and Equity prices travel through time in tandem, applying the syllogism:
  1. Copper does well during economic periods of growth and decline during recessions.
  2. Equities perform well during economic expansion and decline during recessions
  3. Therefore, Copper and Equity price levels are highly correlated.
If this is indeed the case, both markets are warning of a potential trend change--which in turn--if the syllogism is correct--portend the near term future of the nascent recovery.
The chart below is of the Comex Copper Futures EOD Index. As well as indicating an over-bought technical condition there is a very powerful geometric cluster this week.
The chart below is of the Comex High Grade Copper December contract.
  • Squaring the price range from the April 5th high and the June 7th low of 89.55 projects a 480 degree (360+120) time harmonic on October 4, 2010
  • Squaring Price from the April 5th high of 366.55 projects a 180 degree time-price square harmonic for October 5, 2010
  • April 5 + 180 degrees (days) = October 2nd.
  • June 7 + 120 degrees (days) = October 5th.
    Monitoring the price action in the Copper pits this week may reflect the activity in the Equity markets.


    klout said...

    great blog....mr.gann would be proud of u

    i have a question....when u square a 30day chart on the sp500 what price increment do u use????

    keep up the good work

    Fibocycle said...

    for the S&P I use 10 points = 1 DAY. 10:1 when squaring time off highs or lows.
    therefore 100 days : 1000 points from the zero line.

    btw: updates will be sent to your reader automatically if you follow the blog. I use Google Reader

    klout said...

    ok....following along now

    venus goes retrograde oct8 so looking for a reversal

    also did some analysis on the july11 eclipse....the power hits on 10.10.10

    this thing is gonna blow !

    klout said...

    i read ur commentary on the oct4 turn date....it works if the time increment is indead 10pts per day....but what if it is not??? that would skew the entire projection. I am interested in the daily increment for markets...its the key to harmonic trading... i think the spx=11

    i set up a fibonacci ladder with increments of 11 and got interesting results ...e.g. 11,22,33,44,55,66,77,88,99


    Fibocycle said...

    using 11 points is a very interesting scale and it has a valid foundation behind it.
    If you look at the Gann Square (below) off the August 27th low of 1079.70 every 30 degrees is approximately 11 points...every 90 degrees is approx 33 points. Well Done Klout!!!!!!!!!
    Geometric PRICE
    Degrees 1039.7
    30 1050.48
    45 1055.88
    60 1061.31
    72 1065.66
    90 1072.19
    120 1083.14
    135 1088.63
    144 1091.93
    150 1094.14
    180 1105.19
    210 1116.30
    216 1118.53
    225 1121.87
    240 1127.46
    270 1138.68
    288 1145.44
    300 1149.96
    315 1155.62
    330 1161.29
    360 1172.68

    Fibocycle said...

    The Venus station retrograde could be a catalyst for this week--especially with mars recently conjunct Venus. Another interesting fact of the Venus SR is that it will remain Rx until November 19th when it goes direct simultaneously with Jupiter.Venus crosses back through 180 Libra on November 9th--a static German cycle date. If you do some geometric projections you will see that November 19th is a SEMI-HOT date...as well as the 27th 28th of November which is more powerful.
    November 18 = 150 days from the June 21 high
    November 19 288 from Feb 5th low.
    November 22 210 degrees from the April 26th November 19 45 degrees from today

    The action between now and the 3rd week of November will be fascinating to watch unfold.

    Fibocycle said...

    One method of determining scales is to see what the increment of 30-60-90 degrees is off a recent high or low using the Gann square of nine calculation. For longer term analysis I think sticking to the decimal scale 10,100-1000 is a orthodox method that was employed by Gann....however, having said that if you can find a mathematical justification for a scale then use it.

    Joge said...

    If SP500 hits 1174 will it have broken out of the second bear line ?
    I see different EW counts that quarantines the market in a bear territory. How valid are these counts?

    Fibocycle said...

    As you can probably tell I attribute more importance to time as opposed to price. I personally believe that the 1175 area will be hard to reach on this rally--perhaps it will if the market wants to continue into the November 19-27th time frame when there is another VERY important time window.( this is a low probability scenario on my opinion at this time--however the nature of a correction here will tell us a lot about the intermediate trend for the S&P.
    The trend line resistance in the 1155-1162 may be enough to stop the market on the October 8th time harmonic--Venus retrograde and New moon along with many Gann harmonics--and several Phi harmonics that I have not mentioned but are available in any Elliott analysis or blog.
    I think that the 1134 level is of great importance...if that is broken the market will continue lower.
    breaking 1107 and the market will be i serious trouble.

    Fibocycle said...

    THE VIX will give a heads up if the 'pros' are going to 'step away' from the market.