Monday, November 22, 2010

iShares 20+ Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Here is a fascinating chart that suggests that the last week of December 2010 or opening week of 2011 may be interesting for Bond Traders:

The top chart is a 'Square of Range Chart. Note that the squares are not actually geometric squares but 'square' the range of 13 weeks with the 13 point range of the June 10, 2009 and October 2nd 2009 rally.
  • The rally lasted from June 10 to October 2 of 2009. (114 days) The range of the rally was 13 points (96.05-83.05)
  • When 13 points is converted into time--13 weeks = 91 days. 91 days is 1/4 of a year and one day off the harmonic 90 degree geometric. The upper chart is then constructed using 13 week x 13 point 'squares.
  • The 5th 13 week cycle is due Dec 31 2010
  • The lower chart uses the conventional 114 day cycle. The synodic period of the two cycles--91 day and 114 day is 451 days. October 2 2009 + 451 days = December 27th 2010.
  • 5 cycles of 114 days = 570 days. June 10, 2009 + 570 days = January 1 2011.
  • There are several geometric projections from pivot points in TLT over the last year. They culminate between December 23rd and January 6th.
  • Using trigonometric price projections the .886 level (sine(60)) and the .7071 (sine(45)) are very near areas of support and resistance since the June 10, 2009 commencement of the cycle being analyzed. Note the circles where pivots--support and resistance-- occurred.






Although it is anyone's guess as to what the last week of December and first week of January 2011 will bring--the analysis of these cycles suggest that this time period should be earmarked for special attention by Debt Traders.

1 comment:

ricardo said...

I have found the the count trading day hormony for gold in week fram time

from 25 july bottom(1157) to 19 dec 2010 21 weeks
from 03 Dec 2009(1226) top to 19 Dec 2010 55 weeks
from 16 Mar 2008 to 19 Dec 2010 144 weeks

from 5 Apr 2009 to 19 Dec 2010 89 weeks

So they are all fiB that may be top or bottom on that day

Do you think that?