Wednesday, November 17, 2010

S&P Roadmap

Below is a '3D' projection of the S&P 500

Price Considerations
  • The 'originated rectangle' is the formed from the July 1 - Aug 9th rally and is the basis for the parallelepiped rectangular solid. Points A and B.
  • Equal structures are created that are marked 1, 2 & 3 and projected 'back' two units--or--price cycles.
  • Note that the second price cycle intersects the recent 1227.08 high at the 2.5 time cycle point. Projected point was November 14th--actual high is November 5th. Point D
  • Since November 5th prices have declined 'one price cycle' and found support Tuesday at the 1175-1180 level--which was a congestion area in mid-October.
  • The next linear support level will be at the 1129-1130 level which marked the highs of June 21 and August 9th. There is also linear support at 1115-1117 which is 1/2 the first price cycle amplitude.
  • Critical Support is at the 1055-1060 level which is the 'base' of the first price cycle structure. The support at the 2nd price cycle is the familiar 1105-1107 which has been referred to numerous times over the last several months.
  • Note the diagonal lines--sides of the parallelepiped-- have and should provide price support. Will the market recover and follow the green line back up like it followed the 'outside edge' of the second rectangle cycle?
Time Considerations

  • The time aspect originates from the July 1st low and August 9th low Points A and B--same as the price.
  • The first time cycle is 39 days. Each rectangular structure to the right is also 39 days.
  • The markets makes the secondary low on Aug. 27th which is at the half way point between rectangle 1 and rectangle 2. (or 180 degrees of the price cycle.)
  • Note that the recent November 5th high is at the 1/2 point between rectangle 1 and 2 but at the back of the structure-- which is equal to the 3.50 cycle length. The low of August 27th is at the parallel of the November 5th high.Points C and D
Future Dates of Interest

  • Dec 1-5 Back lower corner of 1st Price cycle 1 which is the same as Rectangle 4 (not shown)
  • January 7-10: lower corner of 2nd price cycle which is the same as rectangle 5 (not shown)
  • February 1: Aug 9 - November 5 = 88 days. November 5 + 88 days = February 1
  • March 12: July 1 -November 5th = 127 days. November 5th 9+ 127 days = March 12th.


gwg said...

what software are you using to create the boxes?

Fibocycle said...

I don't use is a combination of excel spreadsheets and the standard paint program. Yes--very simplistic---but effective.
All the calculations are done on an excel spreadsheet

Paul said...

Hi Fibocycle,

Not sure if you will get this comment but I thought I would try. First let me congratulate you on the excellent work that is so eloquently displayed here.

With regards to the post "S&P Roadmap November 17, 2010" can you please explain how you have calculated the unit or price cycle. I am either missing something simple here or I am not familiar with the technique you are using.