Tuesday, November 30, 2010

December 2010

The graphs below indicate dates where markets may be 'energized'. Watch for highs, lows and/or volatility.
Support Resistance for November 30- Dec 3rd.
Support
  • 1178.19
  • 1171.71
  • 1166.99
  • 1151.00
  • 1080.00
Archimedes Point: 1188

Resistance

  • 1199.32
  • 1209.25
  • 1221.00
  • 1231.00
  • 1250.00

Energy Dates for December 2010

  • Dec 3-4 **
  • Dec 10-14*****
  • Dec 18-22*****
  • Dec 27-28



Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Municipal Bonds Could be a PROBLEM

U.S. Dollar
The USDX broke above the previous pivot and is remaining to be contained within the parallelepiped shown on November 12th.
There is a harmonic time cluster the week of Dec 13-17th. If the USDX can break above the resistance indicated on the chart a strong move into mid-December is quite likely.

S&P
The S&P is just above a critical pivot @ 1173.00. The next pivot support is @ 1159.71. While a continuation of the August 27th rally to the 1250 projection is still possible the market should hold above the 1173.00 level--definitely the 1159.71 pivot. There is a time harmonic cluster for the S&P between Dec 18 and Dec 22.

The hideous looking Municipal Bond ETF bears close scrutiny over the next few weeks. Are 'munis' the next shoe to drop?

The cluster of time harmonics for the various markets--gold-US$--S&P suggests that the week before Christmas may have some surprises in store for the financial world.


Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Gold and Fibonacci

Below is an astute observation made by subscriber 'Ricardo'. The time period of Dec 16-22nd looks like some 'PHI energy' may affect the Gold Market. Another date to put in your trading journal. Thx. Ricardo!

Monday, November 22, 2010

iShares 20+ Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Here is a fascinating chart that suggests that the last week of December 2010 or opening week of 2011 may be interesting for Bond Traders:

The top chart is a 'Square of Range Chart. Note that the squares are not actually geometric squares but 'square' the range of 13 weeks with the 13 point range of the June 10, 2009 and October 2nd 2009 rally.
  • The rally lasted from June 10 to October 2 of 2009. (114 days) The range of the rally was 13 points (96.05-83.05)
  • When 13 points is converted into time--13 weeks = 91 days. 91 days is 1/4 of a year and one day off the harmonic 90 degree geometric. The upper chart is then constructed using 13 week x 13 point 'squares.
  • The 5th 13 week cycle is due Dec 31 2010
  • The lower chart uses the conventional 114 day cycle. The synodic period of the two cycles--91 day and 114 day is 451 days. October 2 2009 + 451 days = December 27th 2010.
  • 5 cycles of 114 days = 570 days. June 10, 2009 + 570 days = January 1 2011.
  • There are several geometric projections from pivot points in TLT over the last year. They culminate between December 23rd and January 6th.
  • Using trigonometric price projections the .886 level (sine(60)) and the .7071 (sine(45)) are very near areas of support and resistance since the June 10, 2009 commencement of the cycle being analyzed. Note the circles where pivots--support and resistance-- occurred.






Although it is anyone's guess as to what the last week of December and first week of January 2011 will bring--the analysis of these cycles suggest that this time period should be earmarked for special attention by Debt Traders.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

S&P Roadmap

Below is a '3D' projection of the S&P 500

Price Considerations
  • The 'originated rectangle' is the formed from the July 1 - Aug 9th rally and is the basis for the parallelepiped rectangular solid. Points A and B.
  • Equal structures are created that are marked 1, 2 & 3 and projected 'back' two units--or--price cycles.
  • Note that the second price cycle intersects the recent 1227.08 high at the 2.5 time cycle point. Projected point was November 14th--actual high is November 5th. Point D
  • Since November 5th prices have declined 'one price cycle' and found support Tuesday at the 1175-1180 level--which was a congestion area in mid-October.
  • The next linear support level will be at the 1129-1130 level which marked the highs of June 21 and August 9th. There is also linear support at 1115-1117 which is 1/2 the first price cycle amplitude.
  • Critical Support is at the 1055-1060 level which is the 'base' of the first price cycle structure. The support at the 2nd price cycle is the familiar 1105-1107 which has been referred to numerous times over the last several months.
  • Note the diagonal lines--sides of the parallelepiped-- have and should provide price support. Will the market recover and follow the green line back up like it followed the 'outside edge' of the second rectangle cycle?
  • Below 1105: ALL HELL WILL BREAK LOOSE.
Time Considerations

  • The time aspect originates from the July 1st low and August 9th low Points A and B--same as the price.
  • The first time cycle is 39 days. Each rectangular structure to the right is also 39 days.
  • The markets makes the secondary low on Aug. 27th which is at the half way point between rectangle 1 and rectangle 2. (or 180 degrees of the price cycle.)
  • Note that the recent November 5th high is at the 1/2 point between rectangle 1 and 2 but at the back of the structure-- which is equal to the 3.50 cycle length. The low of August 27th is at the parallel of the November 5th high.Points C and D
Future Dates of Interest

  • Dec 1-5 Back lower corner of 1st Price cycle 1 which is the same as Rectangle 4 (not shown)
  • January 7-10: lower corner of 2nd price cycle which is the same as rectangle 5 (not shown)
  • February 1: Aug 9 - November 5 = 88 days. November 5 + 88 days = February 1
  • March 12: July 1 -November 5th = 127 days. November 5th 9+ 127 days = March 12th.


Monday, November 15, 2010

Saturday, November 13, 2010

S&P Top?

The charts below make a case for a top being made at last week's November 8th Energy Date. While it is still possible for the market to rally into the November 22-25th Energy period, technical indicators are suggesting that a decline is imminent.

This chart shows the square of time using the April 26 - July 1 decline.
  • 2 cycles from July 1 is NOVEMBER 10th.
  • 90 days from Aug 9 is November 7th
  • 720 degrees DOWN from 1219.80 (price) intersected the 1010 low with time.(April 26-July 1)
  • Technical studies appear to be breaking down after showing divergence.

The charts below show the S&P using a 3D projection of 4 key pivots:
Upper Chart
  • AB form the upper parallelepiped. (February 5th - July 1st major lows).
  • Prices hugged the lower corner of the structure during the ascent in September and October.
  • Prices have entered the top right corner of the structure with resistance being encountered at the bottom of the back side of the parallelepiped.
  • An advance into the November 22-25 time frame would put prices at the upper right side of the structure--the extreme point.
  • Prices have followed the 60 degree vector off the August 27th low of 1039.70.
Lower Chart
  • The lower parallelepiped was formed from the June 21st high and the Aug 27th Low.
  • The structure terminated with price approaching the extreme upper right corner--Exact time--price 3 pts. off.
  • Prices hugged the 50% height of the side of the parallelepiped through September and October and spiked to the upper corner in November before reversing.
  • Fridays close was at the 50% height level of the 'side' of the structure.

Friday, November 12, 2010

US $ in 3D

The direction of the USDX will determine the direction of virtually every other market--such as Gold, Silver, Copper, SPX as well as a host of other commodities--such as Sugar, Cotton etc.
The chart below is a "3D" depiction of the USDX.
  • Note how the rectangle derived from points 'AB' form the basis of the parallelpiped. Points A and B are the highs of June and August. The base is denoted as dark blue with the facing side light blue. The back of the rectangular solid is the partially hidden yellow face.
  • Note how prices hugged the 'corners' of the parallelpiped.
  • Prices are still hugging the downtrend line which suggests that the anticipated change in trend of the US $ is not confirmed. A break above 78.36 CASH will be construed as being VERY BULLISH and confirm a change of trend.
  • The lower parallelpiped is derived from points CD which are the lows of August and November.
  • Prices may follow the side panel of the rectangular prism as did prices on the descent into the latest low.


CLICK TO ENLARGE

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Interesting Times are Approaching

Traders that take a contrary position often end up on the profitable side of a trade. The U.S. $ may prove to be a textbook case. When Ben Ponzi announced that he and his financial alchemists were going to manipulate the markets last week the US $ had every reason in the world to tank--it didn't--instead it appears to have made a low.
Cycles suggested that a low was pending on the charts posted over the last several days. (I have included the October 27th chart showing the time price cycle that caught the momentum low) The chart immediately below shows the bullish divergences that have formed with the QE II spike.

A close above 78.36 (cash) would be considered EXTREMELY BULLISH.



Silver certainly likes to be a drama queen. Margins were raised on the futures contract today which prompted a reversal. I cannot help remember good Old Bunker Hunt in 1980 when he and his brother attempted to corner the market. Silver was trading at over $50.00 an ounce only to crash back to reality.
Silver bears close monitoring as it could possibly be the mirror image of the USDX. If the market does not repair the hideous weekly candlestick forming a significant reversal may be at hand.



The S&P is at a critical area. Fibonacci levels are once again being tested while the weekly charts venture into overbought territory. While a move to the 1250 level is quite possible coincident with the November 20-25 geometric projections for a trend change, the S&P could reverse at this level since November 8th represented a relatively powerful ENERGY DATE.
A close below 1193 Cash would likely confirm a reversal in trend.
A major reversal would be confirmed if the Cash traded below 1171.70 and the Dec contract traded below 1167.80

Note that 30 degrees up from the low has been support. Could 15 degrees from the high be the ultimate resistance?


Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Reversal Date?

The markets are just leaving the influence of the November 8th Energy Date. There could be major reversals taking place today. There will be a detailed update this evening.

Friday, November 5, 2010

SPX 1250 ?


I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to
our liberties than standing armies.
If the American people ever allow
private banks to control the issue of their
currency, first by inflation, then by
deflation, the banks and corporations that will
grow up around the banks will deprive the people
of all property - until their children
wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers
conquered.
Thomas Jefferson
1802


Several months ago the inverted H&S was mentioned--stating that 'the street' was obsessed with the regular H&S but did not seem to see the potential inverted H&S.
The break above 1130 validated the Inverted H&S formation which projects a move to the 1250 area.

The graph below shows the geometric nature of the market swings since the April 26th high. The swings all approximated a multiple of 360.
If these geometric patterns continue it follows that the advance off the 1039.70 low on August 27th may measure somewhere near a geometric number. ( 90, 120, 150, 180, 210, 225, 240, 270, 300, 360....)
If the S&P is at the 1250 level on or near November 24th it would represent a harmonic vibration of price and time.


U.S. Dollar.

Three November Energy clusters:
Nov. 2-4
Nov 10-12
Nov. 20-24

Momentum divergences will form as cycle low nears.
Monitor 3 day pivots and hourly charts.

Is a dive into the 20th-25th possible?



Thursday, November 4, 2010

Update this evening.

"The most important change in my trading career occurred when I learned to divorce my ego from the trade. Trading is a psychological game. Most people think that they’re playing against the market, but the market doesn’t care. You’re really playing against yourself. You have to stop trying to will things to happen in order to prove that you’re right"
Marty Schwartz

Monday, November 1, 2010

From Square to Triangle: Price Time Harmonics

The charts below project some interesting things about last week and the week of November 22nd for the market. The projections are made by taking a swing range and projecting that range forward in time. Since the peak on April 26, 2010 the market has been making swings of a very geometric nature as the table below indicate. (the advances and decline range approximated the geometric 90-120-180-210 numbers). Projecting these price ranges forward indicates that last week's market action--peaking at 1196.14--may be a significant resistance level that will impede any further advance. The third week of November produces similar time clusters that suggest that a cycle change may occur then as well.
Another interesting exercise is if the range is multiplied by either 1.732 or .8666 important price levels-historically and possibly in the future are generated. By converting the square of a price range into an equilateral triangle remarkable relationships reveal themselves.
  • When a 2x2 square is converted into a equilateral triangle (2x2x2) it is shown that when the triangle is divided into 2 right angle triangles the perpendicular (opposite side) is necessarily 1.732 or the square root of 3.
  • The resulting height of the perpendicular relative to the hypotenuse is a ratio of 1.732:2 or .86666.
  • Multiplying the range by .8666 significant levels are generated--showing levels of supply and resistance.
  • As well as projecting price forward the center of the triangle--at the perpendicular--trend changes often occur. The relationship of the various swings during the summer are seen to be all related geometrically. Other relationships become evident by applying 90-120-180... degrees to the range. Try it--you will see many minor trend changes hit.




The table below shows these relationships. (right click to open in a separate window or tab)

These two graph are essentially present the same information but one may be easier to follow than the other. :)



It is quite possible that the market is in an area of some significant 'energy'--both in regard to price and time. It appears that once the this coming week passes the next energized period will be the week of November 22-26th. It would be exceptionally amazing if the market experienced a sharp decline currently and then rallied once again to present levels or slightly higher in the latter part of November.