Thursday, December 29, 2011

GOLD: Intermediate Cycle Geometrics

  • support at 1500 and 1400
  • market is entering potential geometric trend change window
  • $1400 support at the level of the 2010 high

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

S&P USDX UPDATE

USDX
On December 16th I suggested that "If the USDX is near 81.20 between Christmas and the New Year a high pivot may form." The US$ is now at that time-price juncture and is becoming slightly over bought on a short term basis.
  • RSI 14: 71.25
  • The 79.24 low of Dec 21st is important short term pivot support.
  • A close above 81 would strengthen the current rally.

S& P 500 CASH

The S&P is not presenting a very bullish argument.
  • Holiday rallies are often held together with duct tape (year-end window dressing)
  • Lateral resistance and diagonal resistance are keeping a lid on prices.
  • Dec 7th and Dec 19th energy windows were validated--the Dec 28-Jan 2 may form a pivot as well
  • Support at 1226-1229 and 1198-1201. 
  • Resistance 1298- 1304 (Gann)




GOLD
no chart
  • Gold is entering a critical time-price juncture. 
  • Market is oversold and at level where a swing low may be attempted...but if prices break any lower from here....things could get nasty..
  • see previous chart

Thursday, December 22, 2011

Gold: Climbing Walls

Cash Gold

The charts below utilize two swings on the cash gold market:

Top Chart: Based on rally AB
  •  Broke support at AC - resistance at BC
  • Climbing non-linear support (blue circle) and Vesica Piscis
  • Approaching resolution vector DC
Bottom Chart: based on rally XY
  • Broke support @ XZ
  • Climbing non-linear support (red circle) and vector WZ


Breaking $1550 spells trouble.

XLF Update

SPDR Financial ETF
On Monday Dec 19th a chart was posted showing that the 'financials' had reached a 'decision point' The chart is replicated below with a parallel support line drawn that demonstate how prices found a low at the blue circle. This chart was based upon the September-October rally.

The lower chart is based on the October decline and projects the geometry ahead which will possibly demarcate the character of the current rally. 
It is quite possible that a double top around $13.50 will be another decision point for the financials.

Stay tuned.


Wednesday, December 21, 2011

CRB Index: Classic Bullish Configuration.

CRB CCI Index



a possible scenario.....if prices escape from the triangle to the upside.


Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Year End Rally??

The projected Dec 19-21 CIT appears to be a low. Below are geometric and spiral projections into the end of the year and early January 2012.

S&P 500 Cash

Pay Attention to China


Monday, December 19, 2011

SPDR Financials Approaching a Decision Point

SPDR Financial 
The Chart below is based upon the 'root' AB. 
  • The triangle ABC contained price except for the brief violation at the November low where prices found support at the vesica piscis. 
  • Prices rallied to resistance at the BC squaring vector. This is coincident with the intersection of the two circles in early December
  • Prices recently broke below the base of the triangle AC.
  • As XLF approaches  point C a resolution to the intermediate trend should occur.
  • The inevitable break of the circle this week will determine the trend.  

Friday, December 16, 2011

Silver: Looking into the Abyss?


S&P 500 & USDX

USDX
The 'root' of the USDX chart below is line AB which represents the decline in October.
  • Note what happened when the red arc and blue arc met--which is at the vesica piscis (VP) (Nov 25 @ 79.70). Prices then began to decline, contained within the circumference of the blue circle, and then exploded out to the upside when DC and BC met.
  • The VP line intersects cycle harmonic lines projected from D and C at approximately 81.20 sometime between Christmas and the beginning of January 2012.
If the USDX is near 81.20 between Christmas and the New Year a high pivot may form.


S&P 500

In the chart of the S&P 500 below two swings are analyzed.
  • The top chart is based upon the root AB ( the October advance) and is represented by the red and green circles with the VP shown in purple.
  • Note what happened when time reached point C which represents the Pythagorean triangle based on AB--the projected Dec 7th turning energy date.
  • Since that high prices have broken out of the green circle to the downside and first support is found at the AC extension near 1175 just after Dec 19th--which is in the Dec 19-21 projected energy date window.

  • The lower chart  is based on the November decline DE.
  • EF represents the right angle from the DE decline. EF intersects the red circle at F which corresponds to the projected Dec 19-21st energy date mentioned in the chart above and in previous updates.
Bottom Line: The 1175 area could be the level of the next pivot  in the Dec. 19-21st time frame.


Monday, December 12, 2011

Make or Break Moment for Gold

GOLD and Sacred Geometry

The vesica piscis has been the subject of mystical speculation since early times and is used in many cultural art forms and sacred geometry. A fascinating propety of the vesica piscic is that the ratio of the height:width is 1.73 (square root of 3 & tan 60 degrees). The 'spine' or center line of the vesica piscis (VP) is shown in the chart of gold below as  the purple line marked VP. A parallel line to the VP is shown in orange and emanates from the important Jan 28 2011 low.
  • Note how price and time react to the VP and related parallel line. Prices seem to be contained in the channel--except for the blow-off to point X which marked the most recent high. The tangent at X is parallel to VP  by definition.
  • What needs to be noticed now is that:
  1. The current price $1663 is at the orange parallel line and is also at point Z , which represents the circumference of the circle centered at Y.
  2. The vesica piscis channel has contained much of the advance in gold and is currently being tested.
  3. The decline could extend to point X (app. $1625) without inflicting to much damage--but if Gold trades below point Z which will be outside the circle, defined by radius YZ, much lower prices can be expected.




Sunday, December 11, 2011

A Quick Rally to 1350-1375 ?

S&P 500
The chart below is based upon the October 4th-27th rally.

There are two circles; one centered at X (Oct 27th  high) and the other centered at A. (Oct 4th low). Some interesting relationships to note:
  • XB is 90 degrees to AX. B intersects circle X at the project December 7th 'Energy Date' which is vertical to Pt. B. This forms the Pythagorean triangle AXB
  • The two circles intersect at C and D. Chord CD is necessarily parallel to Radius XB. CD is the center line of the mystical 'vesica piscis' which is a well known image in sacred geometry.
  • AB forms a chord across  the circle X which is the hypoteneuse of Pythagorean triangle AXB.
  1. Project a line from X to form XE that is parallel to chord AB
  2. Project a line DE that is 90 degrees to the Chord CD that is formed by the intersection of the two circles (X & A)...the vesica pisces.
Lines XE  & DE intersect at the 1350-1360 level  between Dec 19-21 which is the next anticipated Energy Date.
  • Note that the recent rally 'climbed' DE and broke on December 8th--one day after the projected December 7th  Energy Date. 
  • If the market is going to rally into the projected Dec 19-21st date it will obviously have to overcome the December 7th high. (see Gann lines below)
  • If the rally is to materialize it will have to break out of the confines of circle X. The circumference of X will be touched by price tomorrow. In other words tomorrow's action and Tuesday's opening is critical.
 

The chart below shows the Gann fanlines emanating from the May 2nd high (blue) and the July 7th high (red). The 1X2 Gann line from May 2nd is currently at 1258.58. This represents significant resistance and if it is surpassed to the upside a strong upthrust could ensue.
  • If wave 3 is equal to wave 1 the target is 1376.55--slightly above the May 2nd high of 1370.58



Friday, December 9, 2011

Upside Thrust to Dec 19-21 or Dec 28-Jan 4th.

The Dow Transports will likely advance to the next harmonic (cycle) if it can successfully break away from the current congestion which is delineated by the time and price harmonics. (Note: The recent decline found support at the reflection trendline of the June-October decline)  A relatively quick advance to the 5300 level could possibly set up an exceptionally good point to short the markets on either Dec 19-21 or Dec 28-Jan 4th.

Thursday, December 8, 2011

Potential Cycle Change





The circles are based upon the July 7-October 4 decline.
Light Blue: Cycle Harmonic
Dark Blue: Time Harmonic
Pink: 1/2 Cycle Harmonic
Green: 1/2 Price Harmonic
Orange: 1/2 Time Harmonic



  • Note where the various harmonics intersect the horizontal line from the October 4th low there are changes of trend. There is a change of trend due in this time frame since  it is harmonic with the 1/2 Cycle Harmonic. (pink circle--yellow highlight)
  • The angular light blue angle moving to the right is 90 degrees from the July-October trend. A break of this level which is approximately @ 1220 would signal a resumption of  the down trend.
  • The circles seem to contain prices as well--except for over-shots at the trend change intersections.
February Gold

The June-August 1/2 cycle delineates Support and resistance quite well when a Pythagorean analysis is applied. $1675 should hold if the intermediate trend is to remain bullish.


US Dollar Index

Friday, December 2, 2011

What's It Going To Be?

I am not a huge fan of counting Elliott Waves since the 'craft' inevitably succumbs to the trappings of cognitive bias. So, if any of you are EWT aficionados please forgive my blasphemy. The notations are not meant to adhere to standard Elliott nomenclature but is only intended to show that the market is at an important crossroads.

The BULLISH scenario is depicted by the GREEN labels, while the BEARISH scenario is shown in RED. The important trendlines have been added to help discern whether the market is having a BULLISH breakout or, conversely, a BEARISH breakdown.
click to enlarge

Market sentiment is leaning towards being excessively pessimistic, which as experienced traders are aware, is quite BULLISH from a contrarian perspective. However, an argument can be made that we are in different times and the adage 'You ain't seen nothing yet' might describe what is ahead for investors, politicians, bankers, and the general public (globally i.e. EVERYONE).

ONLY THE MARKET KNOWS. IF YOU REMAIN OBJECTIVE IT WILL TELL YOU WHERE IT WANTS TO GO. PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE is the KEY 

THE EURO

Will the Endgame For The Euro Crisis Be Decided On December 9?

Lunar Eclipse square mars @ Uranus St. D
sudden change, reform, tension, revolution upheaval


Saturday, November 26, 2011

Harmonic Resonance at 38.2% Corrections

S&P 500 Geometric Fanlines

Corrections since the March 2009 bottom have been confined to 38.2% retracements. There is another (critical) harmonic at the 1000 level where the 38% and 50% harmonics resonate.
S&P 500 Trend Channels
December 3-7 Geometric Cluster
S&P 500 Geometrics

Geometric Support at 1120


US Dollar Index
EUROPEAN CDS

Friday, November 25, 2011

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Saturday, November 19, 2011

Thursday, November 17, 2011

On The Brink?

GOLD


DOW INDUSTRIALS


S&P500

When TRUST is LOST: MARKETS FREEZE


Wednesday, November 16, 2011

3 Wave Melt-up?

USDX



French CDS--Ooops!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sunday, October 30, 2011

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

October 19th Update

S&P 500
Below is a Geometric Grid and Fibonacci Grid for the S&P 500 using the time-price range of the May-October downtrend. If the market is in the beginning stages of a prolonged bear cycle the market may move sideways until a time harmonic of the previous decline is reached--then continue its decline.
The S&P is at the 50% retracement of the May-October downtrend and is testing the 200 day exponential moving average.

GOLD
Gold is in a precarious position and will have to resume its uptrend to stay in a intermediate cycle bull trend.