Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Making a TOP

The important 1294-1306 daily SWING low gave way during the last few days and initial support has been established at the minor swing low point of 1261.70--the January 7th low.

Today--March 16th marks 120 days from the CRITICAL Swing LOW of 1173 that was established on November 16th. The markets are becoming slightly oversold so it would not be surprising to see some sort of a bounce in the S&P from these levels. However, it should be remembered that the DAILY SWING Chart has TURNED DOWN.

The previous swing low of 1294 I/D and 1306 close becomes the level to watch for resistance to any rally. The upcoming full moon--vernal equinox and Sun-Uranus conjunction may be QUITE important. The next period of energy will be seen in the March 28-31st time frame.

More on this weekends events later.



The weekly chart is beginning to break down with the CRITICAL 1173 acting as the weekly SWING LOW. If this level is broken a strong case will be able to be made for a termination of the intermediate trend that commenced at the July 1st lows.

VIX has exploded--breaking the 24% level and attacking the 28% level and is indicating quite strongly that the intermediate cycle is terminating and that the markets are about to commence an extended period of volatile decline.

While the harmonic level of 1360-1365 is still attainable--the technical damage being seen in the S&P suggests that the probabilities of this happening are diminishing quickly.

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