Monday, January 31, 2011

S&P Top: Squaring of the April-July 2010 Range.

S&P 500
  • The S&P is very close to breaking the swing low of 1271.26 on January 20th.
  • Lower tine of the Andrew's Pitchfork was been violated
  • Several cycles converged the week of January 24-28 (see chart below)
  • Classic RSI divergence
Square of Range
April 26 high: 1219.80
July 1 low: 1010.91

Range 208.89pts

July 1 2011 + 208.89 days = January 25th


February Cycles
February seems relatively unremarkable but the following dates should be noted:

Feb 4-7
Feb 12-14
Feb 19-21
Feb 27-28


USDX

  • The decline below the swing low has not accelerated and has returned back in to the congestion area.
  • A continued rally that pushes prices higher than last week's highs would suggest that the bullish case has regained some influence in the market.
Gold--which could be making a short term low (could be VERY short term) and the USDX will be volatile with the instability in the Middle East. The behavior of these markets will be interesting!!!!

Friday, January 28, 2011

Swing Lows being challenged

  • VIX beginning to break out…watch the 1271 swing low. Cash
  • Transport breaking down
  • ENERGY DATE
  • S&P Andrew's Pitchfork support broken


The Trend is Your Friend

Gold is weak--further evidence that the intermediate cycle is turning down.
Dollar--drifting lower. Waiting for technical-cycle set-up.

Transports
  • The December Swing Low was tested and the two day thrust turned the chart back up.
  • OBV will be interesting to watch while the uptrend plays out.

S&P 500
  • Andrew's Pitchfork defines the uptrend well.
  • New high above 1296 confirmed by OBV
  • 1271 becomes the swing low support level.
  • RSI could be setting up a divergence--non-confirmation.


Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Gold: Short Term Crossroads

  • Gold (Feb Comex) is currently testing recent swing lows and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the July 2010 lows.
  • The loose cluster of geometric dates in this time frame could possibly coincide with a short term low.
  • Resistance will found near 1380-1382 and near 1394-1396.

The weekly chart needs significant deterioration from current levels before the intermediate-long term trend is jeopardized. The July weekly swing low is the critical level to monitor. If gold breaks down from current levels, a quick decline to 1255-1260 is likely.




S&P 500 (E-Mini)
  • S&P (E-Mini Mar. ) is trading higher Tuesday evening surpassing the previous swing high. A test of the 1296 is likely with a possibility of a rally extending to the 1305 level.
  • If this were to occur, several technical indicators would likely set up non-confirmations. 1261 remains the critical support for the short term.
  • VIX is meeting resistance at the 18% level. A break of 1261 will not occur without the VIX breaking to higher levels.
  • Transports week chart structure should be monitored closely.

Monday, January 24, 2011

Transports & VIX will be the Key

Weekly S&P Pivot Points
R3 1320.86
R2 1308.36
R1 1295.85
PIVOT 1283.56
S1 1271.05
S2 1258.76
S3 1246.25


1258-1261 continues to be an important support level for the S&P.
  • Transports are showing signs of major weakness: Outside reversal followed by a bear thrust. A break of swing low at 5018 will increase downside pressure.

Volatility may have made an intermediate cycle low:
  • squaring of price range at recent low
  • A break through R1 18-19 will give way to a test of R2 22-23

US Dollar
  • edging lower towards 77.97 swing low.
  • a resolution of the trading congestion may not occur until the Feb3-5th cluster of geometric cycles (90-180-240 calendar days)

Saturday, January 22, 2011

Fractal Entertainment

Courtesy of subBlue
View at full screen

Surface detail from subBlue on Vimeo.

Friday, January 21, 2011

Markets are becoming Energized

A test of the 1261 pivot seems likely as all markets seem to have jolted in the last several sessions.
  • The lower tine of the Andrew's Pitchfork is providing support
  • The 1261 level remains the most important point on the chart from a short term standpoint.
  • VIX is edging higher and could break above 18 level. If this were to occur the likelihood of a further decline will increase significantly.

There is a possible Gartley '222' formation be set up.
  • if the low at 1267.50 on Thursday is the first leg down of a further decline then the market may rebound in a 3 wave structure.
  • the upside target can be estimated by the following formula: (B + C) - A = D = Target
  • (1280.25 + 1273.25) - 1267.50 = 1286
If the market turns down near or below 1286 a test of the 1261 level is highly possible.

Since the high was 1296 an 11-12 point initial stop on a speculative short would be placed at 1297-1298




Metals were weak on Thursday as well while the US $ held its own. Increased volatility in any or all of these markets will be a signal that an extended--intermediate--decline may be commencing in Gold, Silver and the equity markets.

More on this matter SUNDAY.

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Possible Top Formation @ 1296 (36E2)

The area around the November low @ 77.97 will be an important test for $ bulls.

S&P continues to look toppy. The downturn coinciding with the 70cd structure of the market can be viewed as mounting evidence that a top is being formed. (short term--possibly intermediate in nature) A break of 1260 may attract aggressive sellers.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Dow Transports: Short Term Top

Hourly chart finds consolidation support at today's low.


Signal Top generated in the DJTA. Carry-through selling would confirm signal.

S&P 500 & Copper

March Copper
  • Swing Low @ 4.2505
  • Cycle due January 28th


S&P

  • Minor support at 1260
  • January 21 = 270 days from April 26 2010
  • Swing Support @ 1173
  • 1296 = (36)2
  • Possible Reversal signal on Dow Transports
R2 1299.65
R1 1297.33
Pivot Point 1293.75
S1 1291.43
S2 1287.85

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Raj Times and Cycles: The 144 Year Lunar Anniversary: The Tuscon, Arizona Massacre

A very interesting post from an exceptionally interesting blog. Timely--considering that it is 144 days from the August 27th low.

Raj Times and Cycles: The 144 Year Lunar Anniversary: The Tuscon, Arizona Massacre

Market Geometry


Monday, January 17, 2011

S&P 500 Peaking; $US$ Congestion: Gold Intermediate cycle correction commencing.

The S&P is near a balance point and overbought. Monitor the market closely for evidence of a peak and subsequent reversal.
Weekly Support and Resistance:
R2 1313.95
R1 1303.59
Pivot Point 1282.89
S1 1272.53
S2 1251.83

36*36 = 1296

Rally from Aug 27 to November 5th was 70 days duration. November 5th plus 70 days = January 14, 2011. An intermediate high near 1296 this week is highly probable.



US Dollar Index
Currently in a tricky congestion zone--cycles would suggest a mid-February resolution:



Feb Gold
Trend is turning down--an intermediate term correction is commencing.

Friday, January 14, 2011

Points of Interest.

Nothing much to say: The colored dots speak for themselves. It is interesting how 'quiet' it is out there.......



CITICORP P&F: Close to a Major BUY

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Time and Price Squared

Several astute 'subscribers' have pointed out the relationship between price and time in the S&P 500.

March 6, 2009 + 666.79 days = January 1, 2011

Here are some other harmonic relationships:

October 11 2007 high = 1576.09
2/3 or 240 degrees of 1576.09 = 1576.09 * .667 = 1050.65

October 11, 2007 + 1050.65 days = August 26, 2010 ( 1 day from major low)

3/4 or 270 degrees of 1576.09 = 1576.09 * .75 = 1182.06 days

October 11, 2007 + 1182.06 days = January 5. 2011. ( recent high )

1/2 or 180 degrees of 666.79 = 333.395

March 6, 2009 + 333.395 days = February 2, 2010 ( 3 days from major low)



Sunday, January 9, 2011

USDX: Swing Chart

Traders have their personal styles on how to manage trades.The execution and subsequent strategy of maintaining a position is when a trader's personality enters the picture--either for good (profit) or bad (loss)--it is usually bad thing!!!!! Using a swing chart is an effective method of monitoring a trend and may be of use in eliminating emotional baggage from trading strategies.

  • Any 2 consecutive days of higher or lower closes initiates the conditions for a swing to be formed.( 2 green candles or 2 red candles.)
  • Any major swing on a daily chart must be at least 6 days in duration: i.e a new high or low in the direction of the active swing is not made..
  • Once those conditions are met, a major swing is being formed.
  • If only the first condition is met--i.e. the rally or decline is equal to or less than 5 days (shorter than 6) then it is considered a minor swing and is marked by a lower case letter.
  • If both conditions are met, then a upper case letter is assigned to the peak or trough since it is considered a major swing.
  • Note the 3 days following the June 7th 2010 high. Three consecutive lower days Then the decline lasted more than 5 days--suggesting a significant decline was commencing.

The major swing points make ideal trade entry levels and provide strategic stop loss levels to protect profits and assist in keeping with the trend. The USDX generated a buy on November 15th by closing above Point F. Note that the SPX made a short term low a day later. The S&P made a low November 30th coincident with Point H which represents the highest point reached since the November 4th low. (S&P made a high a day later on November 5th) On Friday the USDX closed above Point I--generating another BUY SIGNAL. A close above 81.44 would generate yet another BUY SIGNAL since it is Point H. The correlation between the USDX and SPX suggests that if the USDX continues to advance there is a strong probability that the SPX will commence a significant decline.

Friday, January 7, 2011

Intermediate Cycle High ?????

The Equity markets are becoming quite over-believed and a correction of some sort is imminent. The amplitude and duration of the anticipated correction will define the status of the secular trend. I think that a trade-able short is on the horizon.
The area to watch is 1248-1254. There are several price relationships that delineate this spot as being of strategic significance.
  • Minor Swing point at 1254
  • Dec-Jan Lunar pivot point at 1255.85
  • 21 day mvg ave. @ 1254.75
A close below this level would indicate that a intermediate term top may have been formed since both daily and weekly charts are in over-bought territory and the current time frame is harmonic with the April-July decline: The time from the July low to the present is 1.50 times the length of the radius representing the Apr.- July decline. The November 5th high marked the time as being equal to the radius of the cycle.


Monday, January 3, 2011

January Energy Dates

The most powerful Energy Dates for the month of January are:
Jan 4-5
Jan 10-11
Jan 17-18
Jan 27-28

Astro Highlights for January:
January 4th
Solar Eclipse @ 13'39" Capricorn
Jupiter conjunct Uranus--trined Venus @ 27* Scorpio - Pisces

January 7th
Sun squared Saturn 16* Cap-Libra

January 8th
Venus enters Sagittarius

January 16
Mars Enters Aquarius

January 17th
Sun sextile Uranus 27 Cap-Pisces

January 19
Sun sextile Jupiter 29* Cap-Pisces

Geometric and Fibonacci Harmonics
Jan. 19 2010 + 360 = Jan. 14, 2011
Feb. 5 2010 + 360 = Jan. 31, 2011
April 26, 2010 +270 = Jan. 21, 2011
May 6, 2010 + 270 = Jan. 31, 2011 and + 240 Jan. 1 2011.
May 25, 2010 + 240 = Jan. 20, 2011
Sept. 23 2010 + 120 = Jan. 21, 2011
Nov. 5, 2010 + 60 = Jan. 4, 2011
Nov. 16,2010 + 60 = Jan. 15, 2011
Nov. 29, 2010 + 60 = Jan. 28, 2011

Jan 19, 20210- April 26, 2010 * 2.618 = Jan 4 2011
Feb. 5, 2010-July 1, 2010 * 1.272 = January 2, 2011
Feb. 5, 2010-July 1, 2010 * 1.414 = January 23, 2011
Apr, 26,2010-July 1, 2010 * 3 = Jan. 15, 2011
April 26, 2010-Aug. 9,2010 * 1.141 = January 4, 2011
April 26, 2010-Aug. 9,2010 * 1.618 = Jan. 25,2011
July 1 2010-Aug 27, 2010 * 2.618 = January 23, 2011