Thursday, February 24, 2011

A Peak Under The Hood

Here is an interesting and informative blog for those interested in current economic events.

A Peak Under The Hood

1306--1271 Levels to Watch

  • The 1306 level-- 21 day ave of lows-- is providing short term support.
  • 1271-1275 next support
  • VIX: Short term breakout--a move > 23.40 would add legs to the surge.
The market behavior between now and March 4th will reveal clues as to the possibility of a significant trend change--or the resumption of 'loads of cash' 'climbing a wall of worry'.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Important Market Juncture

The chart below shows the VIX and the SPX:

  • 1271-1275 is the first support level
  • a break 1261 support may suggest that the decline may be of greater amplitude than previous declines since the Aug 27th low.
  • 1173 is the major support level that should contain any decline if the bulls are to remain in charge.
  • Bullish Scenario: The expected Energy Point between Feb 28-March 4th could be a low instead of the anticipated high. (i.e. a sharp decline into that time frame) A decline into this time frame then a rebound would be suggestive of a continuation of the massive rally since the summer of 2010.
  • Bearish Scenario: The market moves sideways or rallies into the Feb 28-March 4th time frame then breaks below the 1261 level. (i.e. A double top in the 1340-1360 area.)
  • VIX should be monitored closely. A break above 23.84 and the descending trend line from the previous highs would suggest that the bull could be in jeopardy. and that a significant intermediate cycle decline is developing--or possibly a decline of greater price and duration.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Markets are Approaching Targets

Using previous important lows in a market can be a useful in projecting price targets. Taking the difference between two important lows and adding that difference to the second low price often equates with a resistance zone. Both the NASDAQ and S&P have reached or are approaching their respective projected targets.

Monday, February 14, 2011

PHI Harmonics on the Horizon.

There are several interesting time and price relationships in the S&P 500:

PRICE
  • 1360-1365 is a PHI price harmonic


TIME
  • Time harmonic on Feb 27-March 4 with a minor harmonic Feb 21 -23rd.


Friday, February 11, 2011

Transports Show Strength

The Dow Transportation Index is rebounding and currently challenging the previous high @ 5256.80. A break above that level would likely inject tremendous energy into the S&P 500 and other indexes.

There is a PHI price harmonic on the S&P 500 at 1360-1365
Dow Transports

S&P 500

The USDX looks strong and will likely test the 81-82 level before any significant resistant comes into play. See Jan 24th Update for Feb 3-4 projected low for the USDX

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Transportation Index Update: Lines in the Sand

The Andrews Pitchfork which has contained prices since the July-August lows has been violated to the downside and the swing charts appear to be in transition from BULLISH to BEARISH.
5148.89 = Resistance
4988.67 = Support
5 distinct upward thrusts can be counted--if 4950 level is broken, a decline to 4700-4800 is likely before significant support is seen.

The intermediate cycle from the summer lows in the equity markets is getting mature and a peak of intermediate term significance is closer than most investors suspect.

Fed’s illusion of prosperity bound to vanish - The Globe and Mail

Fed’s illusion of prosperity bound to vanish - The Globe and Mail: "- Sent using Google Toolbar"

Thursday, February 3, 2011

S&P,Transports, Copper & USDX

S&P 500
  • Dow Transports are lagging--setting up a possible non-confirmation.
  • Breaking the recent swing low at 4994 spells trouble.

  • S&P 500 and Copper have been a reflection of one another until recently
  • Today's spinning top in copper could set up a test of the 4.20 swing low.
  • Copper seems to be leading the advance--any change it this may be a warning.
USDX
  • fascinating cluster of geometric cycles and a squaring of the 2010 range Feb 2-3rd (NOW).
  • a test of the November 75.63 low is possible but a turn in this time frame would not be out of the question.