Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Transports: A classic technical formation


Monday, August 29, 2011

Rally to 1270-1280???

The S&P could rally to the 1270-1280 and the bearish scenario would remain valid. A break above 1305 would be considered quite bullish.



Friday, August 26, 2011

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Silver Geometrics


SILVER (CASH)
Below is the Cash Silver chart. The $32.00 level is extraordinarily important as it represents a 50% retracement of the rally since January 2010 and strategic weekly pivot point.
The fact that silver did not participate in Gold's latest parabolic rise (blowofff??) suggests that the metal complex is weakening.




Bank of America
Portrait of an economy in trouble.

Red cycle is the last line of defense. A rally immediately is crucially needed.


1390: A Strange Attractor

S&P 500
The mid point of a panic--when prices gap and form a doji is quite often the midpoint of an impulse wave--in this case a downward thrust. Using this methodology a target of approximately 1030 is arrived at which is coincident with the July-August lows of 2010. Note how the midpoint in the 1190 area and its geometric harmonics have been a 'strange attractor' in the past.


GOLD
The June low was made at a 240-120 intersection. Gold is approaching a 120-240 intersection near 1650-1660 area which was a minor resistance point on the parabolic ascent from the June low. If the Bull is to remain relatively healthy the 1650-1660 should provide strong support and contain the decline--breaking 1650 opens up a 'post-parabolic can of worms'.

USDX

Patience---patience. The US$ is like a spring being coiled. The resolution of which will produce a violent thrust. A break out from the 73.50 - 75.50 will be confirmation that the thrust has commenced. Gold should provide a clue as to the direction the resolution of the consolidation takes.



Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Two Geometric Charts


Gold-Intraday


CBOE VIX

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

The Invisible Hand Is Writing On Our Wall | Via Meadia

The Invisible Hand Is Writing On Our Wall | Via Meadia

Take ten minutes and read this: it encapsulates the problems civilization currently faces. The premise that it is a 'spiritual problem' where a fallacious value system has overtaken virtue and excellence will be recognized in the near future as things begin to unravel... Nature heals itself--the forest fire that ravages old forests makes room for new growth.

The Worst Possible Barron's Cover for Market Optimists Ever

Monday, August 15, 2011

Is Capitalism Doomed?

Is Capitalism Doomed? - Nouriel Roubini - Project Syndicate

Resistance at 1240-1260

S&P 500
A corrective rally to the 1240-1260 would be an excellent level to expect a resumption of the intermediate cycle decline


Saturday, August 6, 2011

Market Geometry: Equilibrium

The S&P 500 is at an incredibly critical level.

Click chart to magnify

Friday, August 5, 2011

1173 is Critical

Today's low: 1168.09
  • 1250-1370 Head and Shoulders formation (1130 Target)
  • Diverging RSI
  • March 2009 Trendline broken
  • 200 week (moving down) is being tested--last test was at April 2010 high
  • THE CRITICAL 1173 IS BEING TESTED CURRENTLY: November 16,2010 LOW
  • 1173 is the first weekly pivot below the H&S formation


WEEKLY GANN

30 Degree vector from March '09 low currently @ 1174--coincident with Weekly pivot @ 1173

Thursday, August 4, 2011

NASTY

The Talking Heads at CNBC are singing a different tune today !!!



Gold

A trade for the brave.....

Rally into Aug 16-20????

A dramatic day with a late rally to hang on to the integrity of the advance. A rally into the powerful August 16-20 Energy Window is a high probability scenario.
Transports were extremely oversold and in need of a rally--but serious damage has been done to this Index--which does not bode well for the general market. The 4 year cycle is getting tired.


Wednesday, August 3, 2011

The Second Great Contraction - The Globe and Mail

Politicians would be wise to listen to the Rogoffs--However their myopic egos won't allow that to happen.

The Second Great Contraction - The Globe and Mail

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Buy on Rumor--Sell on News

S&P 500
The S&P is at a critical juncture.
  • March 16th low of 1250.11 is being tested
  • June 16th low of 1258.07 has been broken
  • 30 degree geometric fan line is at 1240.38. The 45* and 36* angles provided support previously.
  • 38.2% retracement from the July 1 2010 low is at 1233
  • Seasonal Support is at 1240.23

Dow Transports

The Transports look ghastly!! However a strong case for support can be made when a diagonal trend line intersects with a horizontal trend line. I guess we will see how that turns out over the next several days. If that level fails to contain the decline all hell could break loose.


Gold
Gold is clearly over-bought but apparently on a roll. The parallel channel since the July 28 2010 low has contained both declines and advances. Gold touched the upper channel today and is trading slightly lower overseas as this is being posted. Although the RSI is diverging the ADX 14 has hooked back upwards. If the market fails here and turns down a decline back to the bottom of the channel may be in the cards.



Transports Melting Down

see 'Nasty" July 27th update.

Monday, August 1, 2011