Monday, January 30, 2012

German CDS : S&P500

Friday, January 27, 2012

Trade Set-Up

S&P 500 Cash  < 1306.06
 S&P March      <  1301.70

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Markets: Like Holding a Beachball Underwater

S&P 500 CASH
  • The high risk sell stop (short 1 HR) would have been hit Tuesday--depending on entry strategy-- and subsequently closed out during the ensuing rally. High risk sell or buy stops are not highly recommended if traders follow an intermediate cycle trading strategy.
  • If tomorrow has a higher high and higher low 1306.06 would be the  new high risk SELL STOP
  • 1248.64 remains the strongest pivot support since the November 25th low. Breaking below this level would add support to the argument that an intermediate downtrend will be in progress.
  • There is Fibonacci resistance at the 1325-1331 & 1350-1365 levels.
  • Next significant Time-Price Energy Point is Feb 3-7th.

U.S. Dollar Index
  • U.S Dollar Index is at a critical level: If the bullish trend is going to continue a low should be attempted in this price range over the next few sessions.

Using A-B as the base radius applied to the October-November rally:
  • Arc AC intersects vesica piscis @ the early October high
  • Arc AD intersects high @ D which is maximum time of cycle AB and coincident with price.
  • Note the green diagonal line that is tangent to the red circle (point E): it is currently at the level of today's close.
  • Resistance along BD: BD is parallel to AE

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Mounting Evidence of an Intermediate Cycle High

S&P 500 CASH
  • ADX Hooking
  • RSI Overbought (this would be better if it was non-confirming)
  • Pythagorean Triangle apex in this time frame
  • Candlestick Doji followed by a Hammer.

Monday, January 23, 2012

Possible Tradable Peak

Trade Strategy Screen for an intermediate term trade


Friday, January 20, 2012

Solar Storm Approaching

012-01-20 16:35   G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm Possible January 23
SWPC Forecasters have determined that the CME from NOAA Region 1402 near disk center yesterday will likely pass above (north) of Earth. This glancing blow will cause just G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity. Look for the first signs of it around 1800Z (1:00 pm EST) on Sunday, January 22, with the bulk of the disturbance to occur Monday, January 23. Watch here for updates.

Jan 21: Sun sextile Uranus
Jan 22: Sun square Jupiter
Jan 23: New Moon  @ 2AQ42
              Mars Retrograde 7:54pm est 


NASA Animation of solar flare
Solar Stormwatch

S&P 500: Geometric Convergence
(Price Time Harmonic)

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Markets are Entering Critical Energy Window.

S&P 500 (Cash)
  • Markets entering 'energy window' (Jan 17-23)
  • Prices approaching May 2 - July 7 trendline
  • prices climbing base trend off November 25th low
  • Resistance @ 1325-1330

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

USDX at Geometric Resistance

U.S. Dollar Index
  • USDX hit resistance at the projected 81.20-81.50 range which is coincident with the linear resistance from where the cycle square intersected the cycle arc--which was a short term high in mid-December. (orange line)
  • Major support at the purple vesica piscis line. 
  • The trend continue higher: higher highers--higher lows.

Friday, January 13, 2012

S&P Setting Up for High Pivot

S&P 500
  • January Energy Date: Jan 17-23
  • ideal technical set up for a high (RSI, Bollinger & ADX)
  • a non-confirmed rally into Jan 18-20th would complete the ideal set up
  • Dec. 19 low @ 1202 is a critical swing pivot: if violated the intermediate trend could turn down
  • Geometric from July 7 - October 4th decline
  • S&P is at diagonal resistance and cycle frontier
  • important support @ 1250

  • Geometric from October-Nov decline
  • market is breaking through diagonal support from November low
  • Critical support at 1250 from July 7th high

Monday, January 9, 2012

Shanghai Bounce ?

On January 5th I posted a Shanghai chart stating that the index was at a critical juncture. The market surged yesterday and has reached a important short term resistance level. If this diagonal resistance based on the vesica piscis is broken higher prices near term can be expected. The chart below is a daily chart using the latest advance (October 2011) as the foundation to the geometric analysis. The previously posted chart is a long term weekly analysis.

S&P 500
Cycle work on the S&P 500 suggests that the market may vacillate until the Jan 17-23rd time frame. More on this later in the week.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

USDX Strength

Shanghai is at a VERY critical juncture.

Monday, January 2, 2012

Dow Transporation Index

Dow Transportation Index
  • continues to stumble at diagonal resistance based on VP harmonic
  • colored grids on right demarcates market trend.
  • critical support at 90 degree vector from July-Oct decline

Cycle Forecasts

Interesting business cycle predictions

Econocasts business cycle chronicles: Cycle Models: DJIA $ Gold $ Silver Long Term Predictions - 20120101

Crisis High of 2011: Samuel “Bud” Kress of the SineScope advisory (SJK Capital, 15 Phoenix Ave., Morristown, NJ 07960)