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5 comments:
Nice analysis. I have it with the same direction but from a different perspective http://gameofsimplethings.blogspot.co.uk/2012/12/eur-usd-us-dollar-index.html
it could be a head and shoulders pattern.... I wouldn't want to be long the usd just in case it breaks the neckline.
I would look for some stabilization around the 78.40-78.80 range. If that were to occur I would then monitor the short term action for a bullish set up--oscillators, Bollingers' candlesticks and pivot points. Once a potential risk reward is established (# of Contracts and STOP) then wait ( using this period to drain emotion about the trade from your consciousness). If you feel that a head and shoulders is being formed (sept 14th low at 78.60 close is the magic point) then it would be an excellent set up for the use of a STOP and REVERSE strategy. These types of trades take discipline and a solid execution and stop loss strategy--but very frequently turn into massively profitable trades. I think that if a H&S is being formed the pattern will likely resolve itself by the week of January 13-19th. (Sept 14 + 120 days)
AUD breaking down out of long term pattern. It runs inverse to the USD and is a good prox for the SP500.
Seasonals favor EUR, GBP, sek, chf weakness from mid Jan thru late Feb. Consistent with the setup suggested above.
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