Sunday, July 29, 2012

TLT 20+ Treasury Bonds IShares

I seldom wade into the perplexing Treasury Markets but some interesting patterns are emerging on the weekly charts:

Two formations are shown in the first chart: The 2 squares from the 2010 decline AB and the 2010-2011 advance BC
  • The blue fan lines generated from the AB square indicates major support just above 125 with secondary support shown by line AE.
  • Note that the second square terminates at point E--which is in the month of August.
  • The radius BC = radius BD.
  • Points E & D could mark the time period of a major change in trend. (August 2012). Note how the arc C-D contained price advances during the decline of 2011. This cycle terminates in August.  

  • The conventional technical chart is showing that TLT is nearing over-bought and could be showing a RSI non-confirmation.
  • The decline of 2011 BA is equal to BC. Point C is near the recent high and subsequent bearish engulfing line. AB = BC
  • 125 is important support since it was the 2011 High and recent corrective low.
  • The DMI is showing signs of exhaustion and is in a position to indicate the end of a major bullish trend.
  • Support is at 125 and 110.

Saturday, July 28, 2012

U.S. Dollar INdex

U.S. Dollar Index

Here is an interesting chart that shows the geometric relationship between an advance and subsequent corrective decline.
The May 1 - June 1 advance AB is depicted by the red square and circle.
The June 1 - June 19 decline BC is depicted by the blue square

  • Note how BC is 1/2 of AB since 2(BC) touches the red circle. (yellow highlights)
  • AB = BD: THe corrective square is 1/2 the advancing square.
  • The colored grid on the right side of the chart indicates bullish and bearish levels.
  • 81-82 to act as strong support.
  • May 1 low + 90 days = July 30
  • June 1 high + 60 days = July 31


Friday, July 27, 2012

My Squiggly Lines is now on Facebook


Your comments and observations are most welcome

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Will August 5-15 be a Significant High ??

S&P 500


The market formed a pivot on July 3, 1012 when the arc formed by AB reached its maximum horizontal distance from A. The market then declined and tested the major fan line BC which should act as primary support on any corrective decline. However the S&P exhibited weakness over the last several days by penetrating BC. Today's rally is attempting to break back above BC.

It is interesting that line AC (hypotenuse) intersects BC at approximately the same time and price as the intersection seen on the lower chart.

The lower chart shows two fan lines: The blue 45* line from the October 4, 2011 low--which is the major support line of the rally since October 4th. The red 60* line emanates from the June 4th low. These lines intersect on August 15, 2012 @ 1390-1393...which is approximately the same level as point 'C' on the upper chart.
It is quite possible that an important top may be seen between August 5th and August 16th.
Here are some astro dates to consider:
  • Aug. 7: Venus enters Cancer
  • Aug. 8: Mercury SD
  • Aug. 9: Venus trine Neptune (oil)

  • Aug. 13: Moon eclipses Venus
  • Aug. 15: Venus opposed Pluto (gold)
  • Aug 15: Mars conjunct Saturn (Currencies)
  • Aug 16: Venus squared Uranus (STOCKS)
  • Aug 17: New Moon
  • Aug 18: Mercury trine Uranus (confusion and communication breakdown, EURO?)
And some geometric dates:
Aug. 3 360 days from Aug. 9 2011 low.
Aug. 3 240 from Dec. 7 high
Aug. 3: 60 days from the June 4 high
Aug. 3: 45 days from the June 19 high
July 31: 120 days from April 2 high

GOLD

Note the slight 'phase shift of the Mar-May decline from the initial Sept.-Dec. decline. This can be seen looking at the parallel relationship between the lines 2-3 of the first decline (green) and the second more recent decline Xd. (red)
It is interesting to note that if the red parallel line is turned 90* at X, the resulting line passes through the Aug 2011 initial high before the the September top (Pt. Y).

Note that the market gained strength at the vertical of 'd' which is the 1/2 square of a-b-c-e.

Sunday, July 22, 2012

S&P Gann Harmonics and Gold Trigonometry

S&P 500



GOLD



  • The cycle arc has reached its maximum horizontal range: this suggests that a cycle burst is imminent. (top chart)
  • The trigonometric fan lines--especially the 45* ($1/day) is acting as strong resistance to any advance. Trading above the 45* would be a bullish development. (> $1600) Breaking $1525 would be quite bearish.

For the most comprehensive charts on the WWW: The Chart Store 


Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Mars Opposed Uranus

The nearby harmonic levels for this evenings Mars-Uranus opposition are 1358 & 1388. It will be interesting to see if this pulls the market into a harmonic price. The 1388 level also coincides with a 78.6% retracement of the April June decline.

It is also interesting to note that the square of nine price from the October 4th low is 1384 (i.e. the corresponding price on the Gann Square of Nine for October 4th is 1384), while the square for July 19 is 1378 (270* from July19th). 180* from the April 2nd high on the square of nine is 1385.

1378-1388 is an extremely important level to monitor!!!!!!!!!!!

Gann Square of Nine at work.




If you have a Square of Nine look at the value for 8 and/or 188 degrees--the longitude of the Mars-Uranus opposition . That number is approximately 1312-1313.  180* from that is 1386-1387.

Add to this a New Moon @ 26* Cancer (116*) there could be an important pivot tomorrow. The behavior of the market if it reaches the mid 1380s will be interesting to watch.

Ballistic !!!!!



Monday, July 16, 2012

Trigonometric Fan Lines & Gann Squares

S&P 500

  • trigonometric fan lines for July 16, 2012 from Oct. 4 Apr. 2 and June 4 pivots
  • Gann Square of Nine harmonics from April 2nd high and June 4th low.


Thursday, July 12, 2012

Critical Time-Price Juncture

S&P 500
The 'square' shown below is based upon the April 2 - June 4 decline A-B
  • BC is the 90* line from AB. Note how support was found at 1 and support is being tenaciously tested at point 2. If the uptrend continues the 3rd test of the BC will prove to be quite important.
  • The high of July 3rd at point 'd' occurred where the arc AB reached its maximum horizontal AB = Ad
  • Point 2 is located at 1/2 BC. Point high at 'e' is located at the 1/2AB. Will '2' produce a minor pivot like 'e'?
  • If the S&P holds above the BC support line, Point C becomes a viable target both in terms of time and price. This would correspond to a high in the first 2 weeks of August around 1400.
  • The June 25th low at 1309.27 should hold on a closing basis of the integrity of the June 4th low and consequent rally is to remain significant.
  • The market has tended to make pivots in the first week of the month: April 2, May 1, June 4 & July 3. If this cyclical patterns continues, July 30-to August 4th should be interesting.
The next several days will be interesting to watch unfold.
  • Friday the 13th: Uranus SR.
  • Saturday the 14th Mercury SR
  • Tuesday the 17th: Mars trine Jupiter and Mars square Pluto (CURRENCIES USDX)
  • Wednesday the 18th New Moon in Cancer.


Monday, July 9, 2012

Steady as She Goes

S&P 500

  • Dates to Watch. July 12-16, Aug 5-8 & Aug 20-23
  • Significant Levels: 1425, 1375, 1300, 1255, 1220 & 1150


U.S.$ Index

Dates to Watch: July 11-14, July 30-Aug 5
Significant Levels: 84.50, 83.25, 81.00 & 78.50

 

Thursday, July 5, 2012

U.S. Dollar

US Dollar Index

 There is a small cluster centered around next weekend -- July 14th. If prices are near the support at 81.50 a resumption of the bull could commence.

  • Lateral resistance from intersection A
  • Lateral support from intersection B
  • Square of price/time @ point C
  • Note that 50% of BC  was support in April and resistance in the later part of June. ( support becomes resistance)
  • 83-83.5 should form resistance to any rally, but breaking decisively through 83 would set up much higher prices.
  • Jan 13 + 180 = July 11
  • March 15 + 120 = July 13
  • June 1 + 45 = July 16
  • May 1 + 72 = July 12

Sunday, July 1, 2012

GOLD


S&P 500

The current time period has an interesting geometric cluster (shown in the 2nd chart below). The technicals look rather bullish--the RSI and other indicators producing a bullish non-confirmation during the later part of the May decline. It appears that the path of least resistance currently is up but it should be noted that rallies within bear campaigns are quite violent and seductive...just look at the market action in the summer of 2008 as an example.

The chart below has several indications of a potential trend change this week--which may correspond to the geometric cluster shown in the second chart.
  • The green arc is at its maximum swing this week
  • The half square forms at the end of this week as well. 


For an interesting analysis of Apple (AAPL) check out this blog: Chart Learning