Thursday, August 30, 2012

TLT 20+ Treasury Ishares and S&P 500

TLT: Bounce or New Bull Campaign:

TLT is in the midst of its expected bounce off the 200 day moving average. For a synopsis on the TLT see the August 15th post. The question now becomes is this a new leg of the aged bull market or a bounce before the 200 day moving average is challenged once again and possibly violated to the downside.

Technical Chart

  • bounced off the 200 day ma coincident with the .618 fan line
  • the bounce has been 50% of the recent decline

 Geometric Chart

  • The large square (AC) is based upon the March-July rally. The 1/2 square of that rally is represented by square BCDE
  • The square of the recent decline is represented by CXZY
  • The center of BCDE square--where BD intersects CE-- marks the August price low at X. Note how this level is also the same as point D since the larger square is almost a perfect 45* isosceles triangle.
  • The center of square CXZY--which is formed by the recent decline--is at approx. 128 which is close to the horizontal 61.8% retracement of the recent decline. This intersection occurs (in time) around the important Sept 12-16th time frame.
  • Another important intersection of time-price occurs in the later part of September where point D and point Y are situated.
  • 120 and 128 are the hot spots to watch on the TLT and September 12-16th and September 24-28th are the 'energy dates'.

 S&P 500

Not much to say here. For my thoughts on the S&P please refer to the August 21st post.
1390 remains the magic spot for the S&P (close only) and September 12-16 looks like it will be bringing some energy to the markets. The Transports are hanging on at the up trend line--a decisive break of 5000 will spell trouble for the other equity indexes. (Dow Theory) (see August 29th update for Transports)



HI-Tech Geometry

XLK Tech Select SPDR

Technical Chart

  • XLK is rising above the parallel support resistance based upon the June 4th low
  • 1st support at lateral from May 1st high
  • turning down from over-bought RSI

Geometric Chart

  • Square based on AB
  • Arc CE reaches maximum in TIME (pt. E) at the high while price is exactly at the epicenter (EC) of square ABD: Time & Price Harmonic
  • Epicenter of the secondary square (BCFD) is at the June 28th corrective low 
  • secondary square (BCFD) ends on Sept 12-16th. (Venus trine Uranus - New Moon)
  • Note how internal square are at both time and price pivots
  • Major support along BF diagonal
  • Note how June-July resistance was at point X which = 1/2 BD

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Bubble to Bubble?


While I am not an avid Elliott Waver, I thought that this interpretation of the wave structure could possibly have some validity. However, I would place very little credence  on this chart interpretation or my ability to analyze anything using Elliott Waves.
If--repeat IF--this was a valid wave count and the market made a high in this time frame at or near this price level, then the wave would be considered a 5th wave failure which would have ominous consequences should the market enter a bear phase. It would not be pretty....and I definitely would not want to be the President during this period.
 

Monday, August 27, 2012

S&P 500

USDX


Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Things are About to Get VERY INTERESTING

S&P 500

 The charts below show the myriad of harmonic relationships being made at today's high and subsequent reversal (Shooting Star). Yesterday's post made the observation that:
There are many cycles coming into play in the next 10 days--both short-term and long term--that could establish the character of the financial and metal markets for the next several months--or possibly years. If there was ever a time to be vigilant of market action: IT IS NOW!!!!!!
Today's action only serves to substantiate the gravitas of the current time window for many markets. Note the following observations:
  • The market rallied impressively from the opening only to hit resistance at 1426.68--mere points from the projected harmonic resistance mentioned in the August 13th update.
  • The 1426 level hit EXACTLY the downward side of the time price square formed by the March 3 - June 4th decline.
  • The 'epicenter' of the time-price square is 1390. This is a VERY--REPEAT--VERY critical level for the S&P. DO NOT IGNORE THIS LEVEL. If the market declines to the 1390 level and then forms a pivot, and then that pivot is subsequently broken to the downside, fasten your seatbelts because there will be a very high probability that things will become very NASTY!!!!!!
  • MARK SEPTEMBER 13th +/- a day in your trading journal--This could be an extremely significant day for the markets. In fact, the week of September 10-14 could be a historical time frame for markets, the economy, the election, the banking system, Europe and the world in general--including the notion of 'liberal democracy'.
The standard technical chart below indicates the potential of a DOUBLE TOP that is harmonically related to the March-June decline and subsequent rally.
  • The rally is 1.272 the duration of the decline. 1.272 is the square root of 1.618 (PHI)
  • A perfect 'shooting star' was formed due to today's reversal. This is a VERY reliable candlestick indicator.
This is a copy of the chart posted in the August 13th update.
  • 1428 was identified as a potential 'strange attractor'
  • 1390 is the level of the epicenter of the geometric chart shown at the top of this page. DO NOT IGNORE THE CRITICAL IMPORTANCE OF 1390. If you choose to--do so at your own peril!!!! I am being very serious about this.

 *Scroll through the previous updates of the last month to get a better idea of the importance of this time frame.

GOLD and SILVER 

If the equity markets are entering a stage of increased volatility and decline, the precious metals may reflect the seriousness of the situation. Watch thr levels indicated in the charts below. The meaning of the colour code on the right hand side of the chart should be self evident !!!!!

I believe that 'things' are going to become incredibly 'non-linear' between now and the U.S. 'election' and if you have an aversion to risk and danger now would be a good time to find a remote island to go to and chill.

Monday, August 20, 2012

Four Conventional Charts

SILVER 

Silver, which can be quite explosive when in a bull run, is showing signs of having established a significant bottom. The correction from the 2011 high has taken 50% of the duration of the 2008-2011 rally. If--repeat--if, new leg is about to commence in earnest it could easily take prices to the $75.00/oz level.

XAU Index 

THe Philly Gold & Silver Index is in the midst of an intermediate cycle rally and may test the 165-170 before any significant correction would ensue. Minor down trend lines have been broken to the upside and the previous double peak  at 170 is within striking distance. The index often leads metal prices and this current rally could be a harbinger of a more powerful rally in the metal markets.

TLT 20+ Treasury Bonds

The bond markets fell apart in accordance with the geometric charts that were featured on August 7 and  July 29. This is an ideal spot for a short term low for the following reasons:
  • 50% retracement of the previous rally
  • Testing the 200 day moving average
  • Testing the uptrend line emanating from the March 2012 low.
  • RSI is near over-sold.
The expected bounce from here is of paramount importance because if after a rally prices once again begin to decline and subsequently break the recent low, a MAJOR SWING PIVOT will be violated which will STRONGLY SUGGEST a secular low in rates has been made. A long term short position in bonds could be EXTREMELY PROFITABLE if this were to occur.

Dow Transports

The Transports have reached the downward trendline of the converging trendlines that were featured in the August 14th update and the cycle lines that were presented in the  August 7th geometric chart. The RSI is approaching over-bought but is not in a position that would indicate that the rally is over-extended by any means.
There are many cycles coming into play in the next 10 days--both short-term and long term--that could establish the character of the financial and metal markets for the next several months--or possibly years. If there was ever a time to be vigilant of market action: IT IS NOW!!!!!!

Sunday, August 19, 2012

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

TLT Recap: Warnings and Subsequent Market Action

 Close Wednesday August 15 2012

 UPDATE: Aug 7 2012

 UPDATE: July 29, 2012

"Points E & D could mark the time period of a major change in trend. (August 2012). Note how the arc C-D contained price advances during the decline of 2011. This cycle terminates in August."

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Dow Transports and Technology Select SPDR

Not much to say here other than 'wait for the break'!

Technology Select Sector SPDR


  • XLK becoming slightly over-bought
  • Breaking above cycle arc but at square resistance


Monday, August 13, 2012

Venus Square Uranus and The Square of Nine

30 years ago today--August 13, 1982 the S&P 500 made a low at 101.44

25 years ago -- on Aug 25 1987 the S&P made a high of 337.89


The charts below show the Venus-Uranus square and the S&P 500.
  • Venus is at 1428 on the Square of Nine
  • Uranus is at 1390 on the Square of Nine
  • The 45* line from the October 4th low intersects the 60* line from the June 4 low at 1391
  • The arc from the June 4th low intersects the 1391 area as well.
The 1391 level could act as a 'strange attractor' on Thursday for the S&P 500. This level could act as a harmonic balance point from which the market would base future movement. A rebound off 1391  could set up still higher prices, whereas a decline through 1391 could set up a intermediate term decline into the late October period. (October 30 +/- 5 days)

Guess we will just have to wait and see....



Sunday, August 12, 2012

Weekly Harmonics: S&P 500

August 16 2012 Geocentric 

August 15: Venus opposed Pluto
August 15: Mars conjunct Saturn
August 16: Venus square Uranus
August 17: New Moon

Venus Squared Uranus Natural Harmonics
00* = 1353
90* =  1390
120* = 1402
180* = 1428
The above levels should act as Support Resistance on August 16th.


Thursday, August 9, 2012

High Frequency Trading is Out of Control



Sit back--watch the graph and ask yourself--Is this really how capitalism is supposed to function?
The day of reckoning is fast approaching--take heed.
 Click the link below

High Frequency Trading is Out of Control

Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Transports & TLT

Dow Transportation Index


20+ Year Treasury Bonds IShares


Sunday, August 5, 2012

Saturday, August 4, 2012

The Predictive Power of 'Flats'

USDX 

The squares below are based on the corrective period AB .

Friday, August 3, 2012

XLF Short Term

XLF appears to be attempting an upside break out today--the closing will be interesting!!!!!!!! The bearish sentiment is far too high for a major turn to the downside here. Perhaps some exhilarating news for a week or two--into the Aug 13-17th time frame..fueled by a short cover panic.

What Scandal Will Break The Camels Back?

A new scandal in the financial industry breaks every day--the market holds tough. Perhaps the behavior of the chart below will elucidate the path of least resistance.

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Beware the Ides of August

S&P 500
I have added part of the chart posted on July 26th that makes a case for a significant August turning point in the S&P 500. Point 'D' on the square  on the chart below tends to corroborate the possibility of a high near 1390-1400 circa August 13-17th.
  • The S&P is losing momentum and is clinging to the 45* major support line and has recently violated it--only to climb back above. The 45* from the October 4th low is currently at 1376, while the 60* from the June 4th low is at 1367.
  • The diagonal of square ABCD is near 1400 on August 15th.

Heliocentric NYSE Natal Chart and the Mars-Jupiter Opposition.

The charts below incorporate Bradley Cowan's  "Pentagonal Time Cycle Theory".
For an in depth analysis using Cowan's work see: Planet Forecaster

  • The heliocentric opposition of Mars and Jupiter occur at 1* Sag-Gemini which is close to the natal conjuction of Earth-Moon at 27* Scorpio. Mars transits this natal point on August 9th.
  • On a Gann square of Nine the value for 240* is 1361. 72* from that point on the Square of Nine is 1391. 144* from 240* is 1421. (Harmonics are 72* apart on a pentagram.)


March 2009 low
  • The low of 2009 was made at a heliocentric Mars-Jupiter conjuction which was 144* from the transiting new moon and 72* from the natal Earth-moon on the NYSE chart. Note how the conjunction and new moons-both natal and transiting are near or exactly at the pentagonal harmonics.



Other significant geocentric astro signatures for this tim eperiod include:
Aug 13: Moon eclipses Venus
Aug 15: Venus opposed Pluto
Aug 15: Mars conjuct Saturn
Aug 16: Venus square Uranus
Aug 17. New Moon