Saturday, September 29, 2012

S&P, Gold and TSX (Toronto)

S&P 500

  • Square and circle based on April-June decline
  • Ci Max harmonic with 1X2 fan line
  • Gann Levels to watch: 1465, 1427, 1390 & 1353
  • Harmonic Dates with 1465.77 Sept. 14 High October 7, 11 & 21st.

 

GOLD 

The squares and circles in the Cash Gold chart are based on the February-May decline.
  • Note the CIT near the maximum point of the circle--the December 2011 low.
  • Opposite maximum point is in the current time frame.
  • Horizontal Green support line is based on the center of square. (approx $1750)

TSX Composite (Toronto) 

Squares and circles are based on the February-May decline (AB).
  • Diagonal of square (AC) is resistance to the rally.
  • The resistance on the AC diagonal is also coincident with the maximum cycle point Cii. Note the CITs at the maximum points in time of Ci

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

S&P Square Sept. 26 14:51 est


TLT Update

TLT 20+ Treasury IshareS
This graph shows the effects of the various cycles emanating from BC and XY at play in the TLT chart.
  • The cycles are marked c1, c2, c3& c4
  • Major Support is line 'CE'
  • Minor Support is line 'YZ'
  • Diagonal fan-lines indicate support-resistance
  • c2 is resolved at point Y
  • currently the market is under the influence of c3
  • a break below CE and YZ would indicate c4 is dominant.

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Monday, September 17, 2012

Why is 1465 Important?

S&P 500

On Monday September 10th I mentioned that "If the S&P was to approach 1441 or 1465 on Thursday there is a increased probability of a market reversal at that time." On Friday the S&P closed at 1465.77. Why is this level important? This is due to the vibrational harmonic of Uranus in this time frame.
  • September 13th: Uranus was 120 degrees from Venus
  • September 19th: Uranus is squared Pluto
  • September 20th: Uranus is opposed Mercury.
  • September 29th: Uranus conjunct Harvest Moon. (opposed both the Sun and square Pluto)
Uranus is currently at 7* Aries.

To determine the degree of a price level on a Gann Square of Nine the following formula can be used:
Sqrt(Price) x 180 = X
X -225 = Y
Y/360 = Z.zzz
Subtract the whole number Z to end up with .zzz
.zzz x 360 = The corresponding degree associated with the price.

If we use Friday's close of 1465.77 the following degree is ascertained.
SQRT of 1465.77 = 38.2853758
38.2853758 x 180 = 6891.36764
6891.36764 - 225 = 6666.36764
6666.36764/360 = 18.5176879
18.5176879-18 = .5176879
360 x .5176879 = 186.367644 degrees.
This is very close to 180 degrees from the position of Uranus.

This time frame also had a new moon (Saturday September 15th) which is often coincident with a market pivot.  The chart below shows that the S&P hit the parallel resistance line and then backed off into the close. While this may not mark the anticipated high it does suggest that the 1465 level should be closely monitored. This week sees some more Uranus action with Uranus squaring Pluto on Wednesday and opposing Mercury on Thursday. It should be noted that the market may hang in until the 29th when Uranus is conjunct the Harvest Moon at 7* Aries.

The market is becoming over-bought and the recent high is 1.272 the amplitude of the May-June correction. It is time to be cautious and to look for signs of a reversal.


TLT: 20 Year+ Treasuries.

 It is beginning to look like the low in rates is in. The precipitous decline in TLT since July 25th strongly suggests that the back of the great bull market is broken and that the secular bull market since 1981 may have seen its final days. Currently the market is quite oversold  and prices are at a 61.8% retracement of the March-July advance. Friday's low also touched the 1/2 square (ABFE) that is based on the March-July rally.(AB)


 USDX

The US $ is very oversold and is at an important support level. There could be a sizable bounce in the dollar here but I think that a bottom will not likely be made until the September 25th time frame when the Fed natal chart becomes active. (more on that at a later date). Nevertheless, I expect the markets to become increasingly volatile as we approach October. The clowns at the Fed are looking increasingly desperate and once the markets begin to realize this there will be some crazy trading sessions. The US $ and the S&P usually move in sympathy with one another so keep a look out for a pivot on either--and of course, the VIX will reflect this if there is going to be fireworks in the financial markets.


Thursday, September 13, 2012

The Trains and Trucks had better start pulling their weight

Dow Theory aficionados are no doubt stressing over the failure of the Transports to break above their May 2nd highs in sympathy with the Industrials. Although this is not a great timing indicator, Dow Theory certainly has a great track record of expressing the primary trend of the market. Keeps your eyes on the trucks and trains!!!!!

What Would 'Uncle Milt' Think !!!!!!!!!!!

TLT U.S. 20+ Treasury 

The price action on TLT is weakening the bullish scenario appreciably. TLT made a 61.8% bounce off its 200 day moving average but has given that back quite quickly. This does nothing to support a strong bullish argument. A weekly close below the previous pivot and 200 day moving average would be yet another nail in the coffin of the long term bull market investors have enjoyed since 1981.
Rolling T-Bills, albeit boring, is becoming an increasingly attractive portfolio option !!!!!!
My guess is that Milton Friedman would be less than impressed with what the clowns at The Fed are doing with monetary policy. Can you say 'diminishing marginal returns......'??

Monday, September 10, 2012

S&P Square and Pentagonal Fractal Chart

S&P 500 

The charts below are based on  April 3 - June 4 correction
  • intersections are highlighted showing trend changes
  • the diagonal lines indicate support and resistance.
  • both the square and pentagonal fractal are indicating Sept 13-16 as a potential swing point.
  • the potential October CITs will be fascinating to watch unfold.

Harmonic Venus-Uranus Trine Wheel

Venus and Uranus are 120* apart geocentric at 0:46 EDT Thursday morning.
the Venus axis is at 1441 on the Square of Nine. Uranus is at 1390.
  • Venus harmonics are 1403, 1441, 1479, and 1517
  • Uranus harmonics are 1390, 1427, 1465 and 1504
    This levels should generate support and resistance. If the S&P was to approach 1441 or 1465 on Thursday there is a increased probability of a market reversal at that time.

Friday, September 7, 2012

Thursday, September 6, 2012

UP UP and AWAY

Would you like to ride in my beautiful balloon
Would you like to ride in my beautiful balloon
We could float among the stars together, you and I
For we can fly we can fly
Up, up and away
My beautiful, my beautiful balloon
The world's a nicer place in my beautiful balloon
It wears a nicer face in my beautiful balloon
We can sing a song and sail along the silver sky
For we can fly we can fly
Up, up and away
My beautiful, my beautiful balloon
Ben Bernanke and Mario Draghi

GOLD

  • short term-daily--getting over believed. RSI, Stochastics etc...
  • weekly geometric seems to indicate that Gold likes to climb walls of worry or get held back by diagonal ceilings.
  • longer term--weekly--gold is still 'OK' with respect to momentum
  • approaching the 50% retracement level but has broken the major downtrend line



TLT

Today's 1.67% decline off the PHI harmonic is giving the upper hand to the bears in the BULL-BEAR tug-o-war. The bearish engulfing line following the doji is not a good sign for the bulls.
Bonds have been in a secular bull market since 1982--30 years....Everything ends at some point. Is it now or is there one last panic surge before the tide changes?

At least we now have a well defined stop level for short positions.

Gold

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

S&P, TLT & USDX

S&P 500

The significance of the 1390-1395 harmonic is being tested as the market declines from the August 20th peak of 1426.68. There is not really that much to say other than the fact that if the S&P closes below 1390 it is likely the beginning of a intermediate term decline--which because it is Sept-Oct--could get nasty. Continue to monitor the 1390 level: it is VERY IMPORTANT just as 1428-1429 was important.

TLT: 20+ Treasury SPDR

Same as the S&Ps: not much to say other than the fact that prices are approaching the important level mentioned in the last update.

USDX

This is an interesting time for the US$.  A somewhat weak case can be made for the US $ attempting a low in this area since there are some time harmonics and the $ is slightly oversold--certainly not washed out though.
  • Dollar is approaching its 200 day moving average
  • Oscillators are near slightly oversold--but certainly not drastic or non-confirming
  • Geometric dates are compelling for a bottom of some sort near the Aug 31st Blue Moon.
 The geometric chart is interesting but not very informative for this time period.
  • The large square (ABCD) is based on the May-July rally, which is divided into 4 smaller squares defined by the mid point line EF.
  • The smaller blue square (XBZY)  is based on the June-July final rally.
  • The fact that prices have gone below the cycle arc at pt. H of the smaller square and the 1X2 fan line (DF) of the larger square impedes the bullish argument.
  • Perhaps the most interesting thing about this chart is the confluence of lines from both squares in late September. (denoted by the yellow highlights). When this is combined with the Harvest Moon (September 29th) - Federal Reserve Bank chart below it makes one wonder what is going to occur in the last week of September that will affect the US$.
 Harvest Moon transiting the FRB Natal Chart (Helio)

  • Note that the Harvest Moon occurs near the pentagonal hot spot on the FRB chart at 8* Aries. The harmonic is between 3 & 4 (3.2833*) degrees Aries.
  • The harvest moon has a little spice added in that the first full moon of the autumn is conjunct Uranus. This configuration is almost 90* from Pluto...Yikes
  • The moon and earth crosses the FRB pentagonal harmonic (3.2833) between Wednesday the 26th and Thursday the 27th.


Guess that we will have to wait and see.....