Friday, March 15, 2013

US $ Index


4 comments:

Anonymous said...

This is interesting in the sense that the USD tends to do well when SPX falls/VIX rises.

Or, a falling USD tends to allow SPX to move higher.

This tendancy would be broken if your USD and VIX charts play out as they indicate.

How do you see it? Perhaps the USD chart finds support at 81.50 and rallies hard, in tandem with a rising VIX?

Thank you in advance.

Fibocycle said...

I am really not sure....The relationship between the $ and the S&P seems to be changing....(see attached link) The resolution of this relationship will likely cause an increase in volatility and I think that the S&P is about to have a very large and volatile correction (at the least)
A close below 15125 on the S&P will be a sign that things are beginning to fall apart.

THe 'cockiness' of the financial press causes me to think that the correction will be far deeper than most people think. THe best contrarian indicator is the cockiness of the talking heads on CNBC.

http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-on-us-dollar-2013-3

Fibocycle said...

If the $ is to remain strong it should hold above 81.00
I meant 1515.00 on the S&P as a warning level.

Fibocycle said...

I suspect VIX will take a run at 40% while the S&P breaks 1485 and heads to a minimum target of 1425. Gold is looking increasingly positive. So there could be several weeks of 'crisis' that will push stocks lower and gold higher.