Thursday, October 31, 2013

Intermediate Cycle Top Due


Permabear Doomster said...


Here is a thought..rather than another cycle top, what if its actually a key breakout, the first big one since the double top of 2000/2007 was busted?

QE continues, and unless you think that is not propping the market up..since its going to continue into next spring, and 'largely' across ALL of 2014, then can the market fall?

Regardless...the weekend is almost here :)

Fibocycle said...

The market discounts future events 4-8 months into the future.....the markets will begin their reaction to the end of QE before it actually begins. Having said that, I think that if the market is higher on November 25th than it is on November 8th there is a chance of a market 'melt-up'...which would likely be a speculative blow-off. However, I believe that the risk reward of going short is pretty attractive if the markets take out the minor pivots just below current prices. There are a lot of cycles culminating coincidentally at this point in time and time. So my bottom line is if the markets take off to the upside here it could be a wild blow-off, but the risk reward is quite attractive for an aggressive short if the markets break down from here.

Fibocycle said...

opps....should read.."at this point in time and PRICE"